This post is a reference to the time and data that we recommended crop sales of soybeans.
2017/18 (old crop sales)
Soybeans: Increasing from 60% to 70% sold
2018/19 (new crop sales)
Soybeans: Increasing from 0% to 10% sold
January 24, 2018:
We’ve seen soybean prices add some weather premium over the past week, thanks mainly in part to Argentina’s dryness.
While we feel like there could be more upside ahead because of unknown certainty, we’re looking to lock in a block of both old and new crop today.
We are specifically pricing our 2017/18 old crop sales off of the July 2018 contract (priced at $10.135 on the Chicago Board of Trade at close of trading on Wednesday, January 24th, which holds a nice carry relative to the March and May 2018 contracts. While you can decide if you want to just do a basis contract and then price the futures later, we are looking at just selling this 10% block on a straight cash deal
For 2018/19 new crop sales, we pricing off the January 2019 contract. You could do this as a straight cash deal as well, but I’m a little bit more open to a basis contract here. However, this is dependent on your thinking that the price of the January 2019 soybeans contract will be higher in the next 11 months. I would argue today that there is a 50% chance of seeing a $10.50 handle next to the January 2019 soybean contract
Again, while we are expecting more premium upside, the risks are steep, given the lack of knowledge on what is truly happening in terms of production risk. And since we know that there’s still a record amount of soybeans left in the pipeline today, we are managing our soybeans prices risk.