GrainCents 2018 Winter Wheat Prices, Market Outlook

In the FarmLead 2017 review of winter wheat markets, we noted that global wheat markets are facing increasing pressure from the growth of the Black Sea, namely Russian production.

The 2018 winter wheat outlook includes more concerns about the ever-rising increase of Russian influence on the global wheat sector.

In this in-depth assessment of the 2018 winter wheat market, we explore the bullish and bearish factors impacting domestic prices. This list includes:

• Global macroeconomic conditions and the Federal Reserve’s influence on the U.S. dollar
• US. wheat export expectations in the wake of rising protectionism from the Trump administration.
• Egyptian wheat imports and the shift of Middle Eastern – Asian market demand
• Weather volatility, La Nina, and the recent Polar Vortex; and,
• When you should be selling winter wheat in 2018 (and why!).

GrainCents Winter Wheat Subscriber Benefits

Our current winter wheat factors page on GrainCents features a multitude of variables that categorize as either bearish, bullish, or just noise for the complex. We’ve streamlined these factors to produce an outlook that will provide readers with a more complete picture of where prices are heading and when to sell their grain.

You can easily read how we view and make sense of the grain markets here.

GrainCents winter wheat readers also see our sales position for 2017/18 old crop and 2018/19 new crop.

It’s 2018 though so let’s dig into what FarmLead is expecting this year for winter wheat prices.

 

When Should You Sell Winter Wheat and At What Price?

Before digging deeper, make sure to set up your FarmLead Price Discovery for winter wheat to make sure you’re aware of what cash winter wheat prices are doing around you.

2018 winter wheat markets is likely going to be categorized by one word: challenging.

But we have a plan.

Over the next…

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Macroeconomic Outlook

Heading into 2018, the world wheat complex is looking at Russia as the largest obstacle to higher prices and profitability.

The nation’s surge of production and exports has…

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U.S. Acreage and Production Declines

Given the state of the U.S. wheat market, it might make more sense to begin with bearish factors

However, the silver lining in this story is that…

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A Polar Vortex and 2018’s Winter Wheat

A rally kicked off 2018’s winter wheat markets thanks to a wall of cold weather that turned parts of the Midwest into what resembled a set from the television show Game of Thrones.

Frigid temperatures battered…

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La Nina Pressures in South American Wheat

Dryness has spread across Kansas and the western Great Plains, but don’t ignore the ongoing La Nina conditions battering wheat producing regions in Argentina.

Farmers have been forced to…

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Quality and Size of the Australian Crop

After a record crop in 2016/17, in Australia, the production numbers remain bleak for the wheat crop.

ABARES, the nation’s commodity forecaster, projects that…

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European Union Wheat Prospects

Markets also anticipate that European Union wheat production will decline in the year ahead.

We watched…

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Global Production and Wheat Stocks

The world is awash in wheat, regardless of whether U.S. producers slash acreage in the new year.

The USDA notes that…

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Russian Production and Export Totals

Russia’s production figures continue to rise.

The latest from…

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The Impact of U.S. Protectionism on American Wheat Exports

U.S. wheat exports are slated to decline by 8% year-over-year to hit 26.5 million metric tonnes.

Part of that story is told…

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Middle Eastern Wheat-Buying Trends

Egypt continues to ramp up purchases from Russia and the Black Sea. All told, the country can secure supply about $15 to $20 per tonne less than U.S. and Canadian alternatives.

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2018/19 Wheat Crop Conditions

In the year ahead, we’ll regularly hear estimates and expectations from trade analysts, government officials, speculators and prognosticators on…

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About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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