September 2018 Corn Prices Recap – FarmLead (GrainCents)

Corn prices finished the month of September 2018 in the green.

Front-month corn prices ended September 2018 about 1.6% higher than in August.  Corn prices were also below the 5-year average for the end of September.

Corn prices in Q3 were down 4% since Q2.

Corn Stocks vs. Prices

The month of September concluded with the U.S. corn harvest pegged at 16% complete (Monday, September 24). That figure is 6 points ahead of the progress in 2017 and 5 points ahead of the five-year average.

Analysts had expected that the harvest progress would come in at 15%.

This month’s corn trade was dominated by the surprising uptick in U.S. corn yields (projected to hit a new record) and the expected boom in U.S. production. The rise in American corn production placed a strain on U.S. and global stocks.

Meanwhile, in Canada, Statistics Canada projected a much larger corn crop than the agency had projected in August. StatsCan updated corn yields in the Great White North to 160.1 bushels per acre. This is up from the 152.6 bpa reported a few weeks ago in their first estimates of Canadian corn production.

For our GrainCents readers, we’re watching a variety of factors that might affect corn prices: 3 are bearish, 2 are bullish, and 6 are what we categorize as noise.

(If you’re not familiar with what “noise” is, then we recommend you check out our GrainCents risk management process towards corn prices.)

This month, GrainCents investigated topics such as:

 

Hedge fund managers turned more bearish on corn prices by the end of September. As of September 25, money managers had a net short position on corn of 112,779 contracts.

As we head into October, out attention will focus on harvest pressures, planting progress in South America, U.S. exports, and the upcoming WASDE report.

To be more on top of the what’s affecting corn prices and so you can make more sense of grain markets, join us for your free trial at GrainCents.

 

About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

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